Montgomery Steppe Leads Early Count in San Diego County District 4 Supervisor Race, Runoff Likely

Early unofficial results in the special election to fill the vacant District 4 seat on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors showed City Councilmember Monica Montgomery Steppe in front, though not by enough to clearly avoid a runoff. The first batch of returns was released shortly after 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

As of Wednesday morning, Montgomery Steppe, a Democrat, attorney and San Diego City Council president pro tem, had 40.63% of the vote. Labor organizations strongly supported her in the officially nonpartisan race. Republican Amy Reichert, founder of Reopen San Diego, was second with 29%.

Democrat Janessa Goldbeck, a Marine veteran and nonprofit organizer, followed with 25.38%. Paul McQuigg, a Republican, Marine veteran and U.S. Census Bureau employee, received slightly more than 5%.

County Registrar of Voters Cynthia Paes explained that a candidate who wins 50% plus one vote would take the seat outright. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a special general election on Nov. 7. Paes noted that the county had no precedent to draw on, saying it had never before held a special vacancy election for a Board of Supervisors seat.

Turnout stood at 20%, with 79,289 ballots cast among the district's 394,373 registered voters. Paes said that once all vote centers had reported, officials estimated about 20,000 ballots were still outstanding, though she stressed that figure is only an estimate. Mail ballots sent on or before Aug. 15 and postmarked by Election Day have seven days to arrive. Provisional ballots also remain to be counted, including those from people who missed the July 31 registration deadline but conditionally registered and voted in person. The next results update is set for Thursday at 5 p.m., and the results must be certified by Sept. 14.

Reichert expressed confidence on X, formerly known as Twitter, writing Tuesday night: "We are waiting for all the votes to be tallied, but I feel very good about our position and confident I will be on the ballot for the Nov. 7 runoff."

If the standings hold, the fall contest could be unusual. Montgomery Steppe and Goldbeck are both Democrats but sit at different ends of the party, with Montgomery Steppe seen as more progressive and Goldbeck as more moderate. Voters who might otherwise back a moderate Democrat could shift toward Reichert, or Democratic voters, who made up more than 66% of Tuesday night's vote, could stay with their party for a decisive win.

The outcome matters for the balance of the board. Democrats Nora Vargas and Terra Lawson-Remer and Republicans Joel Anderson and Jim Desmond often deadlock on politically charged issues, so the new supervisor could tip the board in either a more progressive or a more conservative direction. The winner will serve the remainder of the current term, which ends in January 2027.

The seat became vacant after Nathan Fletcher resigned effective May 15. He announced his resignation March 29 after admitting to what he called an affair with former Metropolitan Transit System employee Grecia Figueroa, who is suing him. Fletcher described the matter as an "inappropriate relationship" with a subordinate. She has alleged sexual assault and harassment, which Fletcher denies. He sought treatment out of state for alcohol abuse and post-traumatic stress disorder.

District 4 is the smallest of the county's five districts by area. It covers central San Diego, La Mesa and Lemon Grove, reaching north to Clairemont Mesa and parts of Kearny Mesa, south to Paradise Valley, east to south El Cajon and west to Mission Hills. The Registrar's office estimates the cost of the two special elections at $5.2 million.