Moscow Airports Face Near-Daily Shutdowns as Drone Threats Mount

Commuters and business travelers at Moscow’s four major airports have faced a new routine this month. According to the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports have suspended operations almost every day in October. On several occasions, these facilities remained closed for as long as nine hours, grounding flights and delaying passengers.

The disruption follows a specific strategic goal outlined by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In early September, he stated that Ukraine would work to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. He addressed airlines, insurers, and travelers directly, declaring that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The next day, Ukraine sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Ukraine’s own airspace has remained closed since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Much of the current chaos stems from a safety procedure managed by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. Known as the carpet protocol, this rule immediately closes airspace over a region or around affected airports if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Strict limits then apply to all air traffic in the affected area.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, explained that every drone poses a military threat. He compared the situation to the Houthi disruption of Saudi airspace in Yemen, noting that Ukraine’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthi forces. Military analyst Jan Matvejev agreed that Ukraine could severely disrupt traffic around Moscow without fully closing Russian airspace as intended.

Matvejev noted that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range. He pointed out that Ukraine’s arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. In an October article for The Atlantic, Simon Shuster cited well-informed sources to describe Ukraine’s efforts as just getting started.

Experts warn that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these threats. Matvejev argued that if it were possible to shoot the drones down, Russian forces would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it had them available. Both Laneckij and Matvejev highlighted the risks to civilian flights under the current conditions.

Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol. This could raise the danger of deadly incidents similar to the 2024 Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators determined that aircraft was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia’s air-defense protocol since that incident.

The risk to aircraft varies depending on the weapon used. Against a low-flying drone that is visually identified and shot with a machine gun, the risk is extremely low. Missiles present a different danger, as defects in mass production could send one toward a nearby airliner. Matvejev added that drones need no explosives to cause harm, because a collision with an airplane can be serious. He noted that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, weighing dozens of kilograms.

Airports elsewhere have also felt the impact. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. Russia has struck Ukrainian airports in return. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv’s airport and Boryspil, near the capital, were hit. Whether foreign airlines keep flying to Russia will depend on the military threat, demand, and insurance costs.

If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, sending ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia’s aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced.