Serbia Students Target 40% Vote as Ruling Party Faces First Real Challenge Since 2012

Arsia Stojanovic, a biology student, told thousands gathered in Belgrade on Thursday evening that their group had walked from every corner of Serbia to reach the capital. Stojanovic described the journey as a way to visit villages and confirm that the Student List could rely on public support. The gathering marked the final campaign rally for the student-led political group, which has protested against the government for almost two years. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate for the list, told the crowd that the atmosphere smelled like freedom. The event concluded with a traditional circle dance.

The student movement launched its campaign after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. The group frames the upcoming parliamentary election as an opportunity to address corruption and demand accountability for the disaster. They aim to move beyond the ideological and foreign policy divisions that have traditionally defined Serbian politics.

Political scientist Dusan Spasojevic described the vote as the first competitive election since Aleksandar Vucic took power in 2012. He noted that current polls suggest the Student List could win more than 40% of the vote. Spasojevic stated that the movement has generated substantial support and hope among voters. This assessment contrasts with the Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, which has governed for 14 years.

The SNS held its own closing rally in Belgrade, where leaders argued that voting for the party ensures stability, continuity, and prosperity. Party officials warned that changing the government risks chaos and portrayed the election as a fight for national sovereignty. Former President Vucic told supporters that opponents were acting on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros.

The campaign has been marked by frequent conflicts. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA reported that opposition activists faced surveillance and police questioning, often with slow police response to protect them. The group concluded that the campaign was neither free nor fair.

Media analysis showed that nearly three-quarters of national television airtime went to government representatives. More than 80% of coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Authorities have warned of potential street violence after the vote, claiming foreign intelligence services are aiding the students. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic predicted that a narrow victory for the SNS would likely be contested. The student movement has vowed to defend every vote cast.

An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations to improve Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson emphasized that democracy and the rule of law are central to the country's accession process. Serbia has held the status of an EU candidate country since 2012.