Serbia prioritizes domestic repairs over foreign shifts

The Student List won a historic victory in Sunday’s election, ending fourteen years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and December’s presidential elections, international observers are watching for immediate changes in foreign policy. However, regional experts warn that the new government will focus on internal consolidation first, making any geopolitical shift gradual rather than sudden.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that relations with neighbors will not be the immediate priority. He noted that the new authorities must first address a system that has captured all democratic institutions. These internal issues include problems within the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov argued that tidying up at home must happen before solving problems with neighbors, despite the outgoing regime’s efforts to undermine regional ties.

Relations with Croatia remain the most difficult aspect of Serbia’s neighborhood. Popov described the current state as marked by frequent sharp words, noting that neither side considers the relationship fully functional. Vucic recently accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution during mass protests in Serbia. Popov suggested that Zagreb often fires a poisoned arrow at Belgrade to create an argument for retaliation, a dynamic he said functioned on the production of internal and external enemies.

Despite public hostility, Popov identified a quiet convergence between Belgrade and Zagreb on the structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia backs Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik, while Croatia favors the creation of a third entity. Popov expressed hope that a new government led by experts and civic leaders will work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union. He emphasized that the previous government sabotaged EU integration and that the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. He stated that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. While Russian influence will face a blow due to the end of uncritical media glorification and downgraded intelligence cooperation, the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.

Vuksanovic noted that Serbia still needs preferential gas prices from Russia and faces an unresolved Kosovo dispute. He added that parts of the public remain disillusioned with the West. Consequently, the new government will not join EU sanctions or adopt a hardline posture toward Moscow. Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though the continuation of ammunition deliveries to Ukraine remains uncertain as the opposition viewed these sales as a cynical ploy.

Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said that Serbia’s close relationship with Israel will not be severed but will face scrutiny. The new government is expected to re-examine recently concluded contracts, primarily those concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government has lost another authoritarian, nationalist ally in Europe following Viktor Orban’s removal in Hungary. He added that Serbia’s future stance will depend largely on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

Jaksic emphasized that Serbia’s policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which he argued brought more harm than good, will certainly be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the European Union. All interviewed analysts agree that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments as Serbia enters this new political era.