Trump approval sits at 37% as midterm vote approaches

Americans head into Tuesday's midterm elections with a mix of high anticipation and anxiety. The coming days will test the nation's political confidence, a pressure that may persist for weeks after the votes are cast.

The numbers point to a difficult night for the party in power. Most observers, including those seeking objective measurements, predict that Republicans will lose their slim majority in the House. The Senate race remains too close to call, with the possibility that the GOP could keep control only through the tie-breaking vote held by Vice President Vance.

President Trump has moved his campaign to match these projections. During the final weekend of the campaign, he made in-person visits to Iowa and Kansas to protect key Senate races. He held remote rallies in 19 other states. This focus on specific states reflects a strategy to limit losses in a tough environment. In 2016, Trump won 31 Iowa counties that had voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

The president's personal visibility is a central factor in these elections. He has framed the vote as a referendum on his own leadership, asking supporters to "Pretend I'm on the ballot." While this approach resonates with his base, the larger electorate appears less convinced. Recent polls show his average approval rating has fallen from 52% in early 2025 to 37% now. This figure drops below the 40% threshold that has historically signaled severe midterm losses for a president's party.

Economic dissatisfaction drives much of this shift. Voters point to elevated inflation and rising gas prices as evidence that promises to lower costs have not materialized. Foreign policy stumbles, such as the lack of immediate peace in Ukraine, have also drawn criticism, though economic concerns weigh more heavily on the average voter.

Democrats face their own challenges if they gain power. Even if they secure a majority in either chamber, it will likely be modest. The party must also navigate internal divisions, including tensions between centrist lawmakers and progressive candidates. Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer at the American Enterprise Institute, published a list of 11 questions for Democrats in October. His final question asks whether the party will prioritize the interests of working-class voters over other social policy goals.

Beyond party strategy, the elections will test public faith in the voting process itself. Nonpartisan experts note that reforms since the Help America Vote Act of 2002 have improved election administration. Yet the president continues to label polling and news reporting as fake, a stance that may intensify scrutiny of the final results in the days following the vote.