44% of voters say finances stayed the same

American voters face a political cycle defined by economic anxiety and a war in the Middle East. President Donald Trump was elected in 2024 with a mandate to lower prices. That goal has not been met. Instead, he faces record-low approval ratings and high opposition intensity. Voters blame him for rising costs on goods and energy. These increases follow his decision to impose tariffs and wage war with Iran.

The economy is splitting into two distinct groups. Wealthy Americans are seeing stock portfolios grow, driven largely by artificial intelligence companies. Regular Americans are struggling. Inflation is outpacing wages. The labor market is middling. Interest rates are creeping higher, making it harder to buy homes or cars. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 44% of respondents said their finances have mostly stayed the same. Another 38% said their economic situations have worsened. Only 15% said things have gotten better.

Discontent extends beyond the economy. Voters are unhappy with hard-line immigration enforcement and cuts to Medicaid. They are also frustrated by slashed regulations and a reduced government workforce. These factors are angering swing voters. History suggests the president's party will pay a price. Since World War II, the president's party has gained House seats in midterm elections only twice. On average, they lose 26 seats. When the president's approval rating is below 50%, the average loss rises to 35 seats. Trump's approval is currently below that threshold.

Democrats have performed well in recent special and off-year elections. The political environment has shifted further in their favor due to the unpopular Iran war and skyrocketing gas prices. They are favored to win control of the House. They are also close to winning the Senate, a position that seemed unlikely earlier in the cycle. However, structural limits exist. The Cook Political Report rates about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. In 2018, Democrats won more than 40 net seats. Mid-decade redistricting has also helped Republicans. An NPR analysis estimates Republicans gained an 8-seat advantage from redistricting. Voting patterns among Latinos in South Texas could influence these numbers.

The Democratic Party faces its own challenges. It is not viewed positively by all voters. Some base voters remain unsatisfied with the party. A recent NPR poll showed that self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in these midterms. They strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance. Forty-four percent of poll respondents said their vote is against Trump. Twenty-one percent said it is for him. This group may vote in large numbers as a check on the president. However, clashes over ideals and approach may emerge as Democratic presidential primaries approach. The 2028 election begins immediately after these midterms. Candidates seeking a national boost may announce early, perhaps in January or February.

Nothing is decided until results are in. Republican turnout will be a major factor. Trump has campaigned in red states to push his base to vote. Without high GOP turnout, a small Democratic Senate gain could expand to six or seven seats. If Democrats do not win the House, it would represent a major polling error. Most states and districts will be called by election night. Some key races, particularly in the Senate, may take days or weeks to resolve. Trump is already preparing claims of rigged elections. He has done this after previous losses. The latest NPR poll found that most people across parties believe their states will run fair elections. However, a quarter of Republicans said their candidate likely should not accept the results.