Trump's Approval Falls to 37% Before Midterms

President Donald Trump's average approval rating has fallen to 37% in recent polls, a drop from the 52% average recorded early in 2025. This figure falls below the 40% threshold that political analysts have historically linked to severe electoral defeats for the party controlling the White House.

The decline coincides with a midterm election cycle where the political pendulum appears set to swing against the incumbent party. Historical data shows this shift occurring in nearly every midterm election over the past century. Current projections indicate the Republican Party will likely lose its slim majority in the House of Representatives.

The Senate race remains too close to call, though Republicans may retain control through Vice President JD Vance's tie-breaking vote. The uncertainty has driven the Trump campaign to focus heavily on defending vulnerable seats in states such as Iowa and Kansas.

Trump visited Iowa and Kansas during the final weekend of the campaign, a strategy aimed at limiting losses in areas where Republicans have traditionally held strength. Iowa and Kansas are notable because Trump won 31 Iowa counties in 2016 that had previously supported Democrats, and Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

The president's intense personal involvement in the midterms distinguishes this cycle from previous ones. Unlike first-term presidents who often adopt a more conventional executive role during midterms, Trump has positioned himself as the central figure and symbol of the party. This approach has resonated with his base but generated friction with the broader electorate.

Critics have focused on unmet campaign promises, particularly regarding economic stability and foreign policy. Inflation remains elevated, and the public perceives a sustained increase in everyday costs, including gas prices. These economic concerns have driven voter dissatisfaction despite Trump's assertions of a new era for the country.

Democratic confidence in a potential takeover is tempered by the party's internal divisions. If Democrats win the House, the majority is expected to be modest. A narrow Senate victory would empower independent members over party leadership. The party faces a contrast between consensus-building candidates and progressive nominees aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America.

Political demographer Ruy Teixeira, who now works at the American Enterprise Institute, published a list of 11 questions for Democrats in October. His final question asks whether the party will prioritize the interests of white working-class voters over its recent focus on race, gender, and social policy.

The election also tests public faith in the voting system itself. While nonpartisan experts defend current election administration methods, including touch-screen technology and paper trails implemented after the 2000 Florida recount, skepticism persists. Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of polls and news reports, often labeling them as fake.

Tension is expected on election night, but greater stress may emerge in the days following the vote. The process will test whether the will of the people remains clear and whether the mechanisms of American democracy can withstand repeated challenges to their legitimacy.