Poll Finds Democrats Hold Eight-Point Lead in Midterm Races

The 2026 midterm election cycle is shaping up as a contest for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with current data suggesting Democrats are the favorites. A new poll conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist provides a detailed look at voter sentiment, highlighting both the strength of the Democratic position and the structural headwinds they face.

Among likely voters, Democrats hold an eight-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. This margin is slightly lower than the ten-point lead seen among all registered voters, but it aligns with historical patterns that typically precede substantial seat gains. In previous cycles with similar leads, such as 2018 and 2006, Democrats flipped at least 30 House seats. However, recent redistricting efforts in Republican-led states have shifted the national seat map, potentially tempering the total number of seats Democrats can capture.

President Donald Trump’s job approval remains low, with 59% of likely voters disapproving of his performance. This negative sentiment drives a significant portion of the Democratic advantage, as 44% of likely voters say they are voting against Trump rather than for a specific Democrat. Despite this, the enthusiasm gap is not as wide as previous midterms. Democratic likely voters are 71% very enthusiastic to vote, compared to 61% for Republicans. Yet, key Democratic pillars show lower turnout energy, with only 42% of likely voters under 45 and 53% of non-white voters reporting high enthusiasm.

Cost of living remains the primary concern for voters, with 4 in 10 stating their personal finances have worsened in the past year. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as a strain on his household. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said. Immigration continues to resonate with MAGA supporters, while 61% of respondents support legal pathways for immigrants who meet specific requirements, a view held by fewer Republicans.

Public opinion on technology and government efficiency also provides context for the race. Six in 10 likely voters believe new data center construction will have a negative impact on the country, with 66% opposing a data center in their own community. Additionally, 57% of respondents described the government as almost always wasteful and inefficient, a view shared by majorities of Republicans and independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to view government favorably, with nearly 6 in 10 stating it often performs better than the public acknowledges.

Confidence in the election process remains high, with 75% of likely voters trusting that state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. Republicans are less confident than Democrats, with a 20-point gap in trust levels. A quarter of Republicans indicated that their preferred candidate should challenge the results if they lose, compared to a much smaller share of Democrats. The poll was conducted on October 19 and 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for likely voters.