15 Knesset Seats: The Margin That Could Decide Israel's Next Government

In Kfar Qasim, residents gathered at sunset for pastries and coffee to hear campaign pitches. Their community constitutes roughly 20% of the national population. With elections scheduled for next week, the voting behavior of these 20% may determine the balance of power in the 120-seat legislature.

Current forecasts indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its majority. However, the Jewish Israeli opposition is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. The gap will likely be filled by Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are expected to secure between 12 and 15 seats. These seats will be divided between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance that includes Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for over two decades, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a primary tool for bringing down the current government. He said, "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal."

Most opposition leaders have ruled out a formal alliance with Arab politicians, a stance reinforced by Netanyahu's allies who have campaigned against such a partnership. Posters have displayed slogans like "It's [either] the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Despite these warnings, coalition promises have been broken before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett. Bennett now sits in the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself once opened talks with Abbas. Mohammed, a voter and manager, noted that the opposition may shift its position once results are in, describing the decision as pure mathematics.

For Palestinian politicians, the choice remains difficult. The opposition parties generally do not support a two-state solution and many back the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi described the decision as choosing between the current leadership of Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, or the opposition. He characterized the options as a choice between "bad and worse."

Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the primary motivator for voters. He cited the destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination within Israel as reasons to prevent a far-right return. He stated, "The biggest motivation is fear," adding that voters understand the danger if "these criminals come back to rule again." Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation.

Distrust of the system has historically suppressed turnout. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. This ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify Itamar Ben-Gvir for racist language was not upheld. Some citizens, such as journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle to avoid legitimizing a system that treats their rights as favors.

The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the anniversary of the 1956 massacre, where border police killed 49 people who were unaware of a curfew. Iraqi noted that there is no clarity about what happens after the vote, a feeling of powerlessness he believes many residents share.