77.7%: Record turnout in Israel leaves both major blocs without a governing majority

The political future of Israel now hinges on a specific arithmetic problem. With 70% of ballots counted, neither the camp of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition bloc led by former General Gadi Eisenkot appears likely to secure the 61 Knesset seats necessary to form a government. This outcome leaves ordinary voters with two distinct paths: a coalition that includes Palestinian parties or a return to the polls.

The election on Tuesday saw a turnout of 77.7%, the highest recorded since 1999. This surge in participation was driven by a record number of serving military members voting and tens of thousands of diaspora Israelis returning to cast ballots. These voters largely opposed the current governing coalition, shifting the balance of power in a campaign widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership.

Gadi Eisenkot, leading the Change bloc, declared a victory for a Zionist majority and appeared to rule out a broad coalition with Arab partners. Yair Golan, leader of the center-left Democrats within Eisenkot’s alliance, challenged this stance. Golan argued that excluding Arab votes allows Netanyahu to maintain power with non-Zionist ultra-Orthodox parties. He stated that the opposition must stop being afraid and end what he described as racist distinctions in vote counting.

Palestinian parties are positioning themselves as essential players. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, said his party’s strong performance means it cannot be ignored. He cited the government’s handling of Gaza and the West Bank, specifically naming Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as making life bitter for Arab citizens. Jabareen declared his party ready to help oust the current government.

Donald Trump claimed credit for Netanyahu’s stronger-than-expected showing, stating that his endorsement had helped the prime minister significantly. Trump suggested the result was heading toward a stalemate or a Netanyahu win. Meanwhile, President Isaac Herzog will soon task one of the party leaders with forming a government within six weeks. If that attempt fails, the mandate passes to the rival bloc.

Counting all votes, including absentee ballots from deployed soldiers, may take several days. The army vote usually favors the right, but the current mix of older, moderate reservists on active duty may complicate that trend. Netanyahu will remain in a caretaker role during these negotiations. He faces a long-running corruption trial and is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.

The election occurred while Israel faces accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria, and waged a war with the United States against Iran. Political deadlock has previously led to repeated elections, with five held between 2019 and 2022.