Service Economy Reshapes Brazil's Final Presidential Vote

Brazil votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday.

The race is being driven by a structural shift in how workers earn their living. In Osasco, a city outside São Paulo, manufacturing plants have been replaced by retail centers and logistics hubs. The municipality, once a stronghold for the left, voted for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022. In this month's first round, it shifted to right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro leads the national race after that initial vote. Every first-round winner since 1989 has secured the presidency.

Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union in Osasco, describes the local economy as fundamentally altered. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile factories have vanished. In their place, five shopping malls have been constructed. Almazan characterizes the current labor force as no longer predominantly industrial. He labels the union movement that supported Lula's rise as stuck in the "Middle Ages." Many residents now work as drivers, food couriers, or small traders. Almazan calls this trend "Uber-isation." He argues that these workers value flexibility over the collective welfare benefits Lula traditionally provides.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro, says Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early. This timing makes the economic transition more acute. Lapper describes Lula as a "victim of his own success." Under Lula's current term, unemployment has reached a record low. Brazil was also removed from the UN's Hunger Map. However, Lapper points to a crisis of expectations. Many citizens report feeling poorer due to high prices, household debt, and elevated interest rates, despite improved macroeconomic indicators.

Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who historically supported Lula, blames government mismanagement for the heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained from voting, now plans to support Bolsonaro. She states that conditions have not changed since Lula returned to power. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro offers "the hope of change." Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries. He also plans to reduce some taxes while retaining key welfare programs. He denies ongoing corruption accusations.

Turnout in the first round was low. Thirty-three million Brazilians did not vote, marking the highest abstention rate since 1998. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies. It claims a recent event in São Paulo drew approximately one million people. Aerial footage of the crowds has circulated widely online. Lula, 80, has used social media to address age-related concerns. He calls himself the "king of selfies." Among the poorest voters, Lula's welfare record remains a major factor. In Maré, one of Rio's largest favelas, Lula won despite above-average abstention.

Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother in Maré, earns less than £300 a month. She supports Lula because of his minimum wage increases and free essential medicines. She doubts Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization. She fears police raids similar to last year's operations in Rio, which killed more than 130 people. Resident Andreza Dionísio cites last-minute polling station changes and hopelessness for the low turnout. Evangelical churches, which serve about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling the gap with childcare and employment advice. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula.

Lula's path to victory now depends on whether voters believe he can offer a new economic story.