Lula faces historic odds in Sunday's Brazilian runoff

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stands on the losing side of the first round, yet his supporters believe a turnaround is possible on Sunday. The conflict centers on whether a candidate who lost the initial vote can win the runoff, a feat never achieved in Brazil since the return of democracy in the 1980s.

Approximately 159 million Brazilians are eligible to cast ballots. Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote in the first round on October 4, while Lula received 45%. Current polling data shows the two candidates are effectively tied.

Tens of thousands of Lula supporters gathered on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. The crowd filled the 2.5-mile stretch of sand in red clothing. Activists displayed a large yellow and green banner with the message, "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Truck driver Josias Silva, 61, held a homemade sign reading "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." Silva stated that recent student-led protests indicate that "the people have woken up." He predicted Lula would capture over 60% of the votes, though polls suggest a much closer margin.

Flávio Bolsonaro remains the slight favorite among analysts. He positions himself as a hardliner on violent crime, citing his father Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022. However, Lula has gained ground following recent scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party during the peak of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The event allegedly included sex workers and vaccine lobbyists seeking deals with the Bolsonaro government.

The stakes extend beyond standard political policy. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democratic leaders fear he may be released or return to power if his son wins. Press reports indicate that several of his associates, currently jailed or in exile, could receive senior military or police positions. Marta Moraes, a 59-year-old restaurateur, explained that her opposition targets "Bolsonarismo" specifically. She noted that she lost four relatives due to the handling of the pandemic under Jair Bolsonaro's administration.

Many attendees in Rio belong to "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group with 10 million members created after the first round. Retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, described the event as not a normal election. DJ Cammy Marinho, 49, said she spent two weeks persuading Bolsonaro voters and non-voters to switch sides. Heitor Lopes da Silva, 14, traveled from Duque de Caxias in a wheelchair to show support.

Bolsonaro supporters also marched in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais. Thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade wearing yellow jerseys and waving Brazilian and US flags. Minas Gerais holds the second-largest electorate in the country. No presidential candidate has won the office without carrying this state. Bolsonaro led by nearly 5% in the first round there. Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, a 59-year-old shooting club owner, argued that Jair Bolsonaro granted citizens the right to self-defense and his son would continue that policy.

Security experts note that Jair Bolsonaro's looser gun laws diverted many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has tightened regulations. Lula's backers point to Bolsonaro's documented ties to Rio's paramilitary militias. Erika Cavalcante, a 43-year-old architect, carried a sign that read, "Don't let the mobsters win."