70,000 Deaths: The Weight Behind Israel's Tightest Election

Benjamin Netanyahu has occupied the Israeli prime minister's office for 19 of the last 30 years, and Tuesday's election tests whether that tenure can withstand a divided electorate. The race has collapsed into a binary choice between pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu camps, with polling showing the two sides running neck and neck.

The opposition's lead figure is Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff who entered politics only four years ago. His party, Yashar, translates to "straight" or "direct." Eisenkot proposes US-style term limits for the prime minister, arguing that power corrupts. At a rally in Modi'in this week, supporters praised his plain style. Noa Sadeh, 56, said she is tired of politicians who know how to talk and wants someone who will do the doing.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc is not a unified front. It includes former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both from the nationalist right who previously served alongside the current leader before falling out with him. The bloc is forecast to outpoll Netanyahu's camp but fall short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. This forces a strategic calculation about relying on parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about a fifth of the population.

On the far right, the pitch remains focused on Netanyahu. Yishai Fleisher of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party told voters in Bet Shemesh that the prime minister drifts left. Fleisher argued for more settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, a ministry to encourage the "voluntary" departure of Palestinians, the death penalty, and more weapons for Jewish civilians.

Netanyahu has shaped the campaign's terms through rhetoric and imagery. His latest posters offer a rhyming choice between Yamin (right) and Falastin (Palestine). They place opposition leaders alongside the heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens. Pro-Netanyahu media, particularly Channel 14, have kept his opponents on the defensive. This week, Channel 14's Yinon Magal called Eisenkot a Moroccan "monkey." Speakers at the Modi'in rally raised the slur, though Eisenkot did not.

Observers puzzle over how Netanyahu remains competitive despite recent setbacks. The deadliest attack in Israel's history occurred on October 7, 2023, on his watch. His war in Gaza has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, of whom Israel says a third were Hamas combatants. The war did not eradicate Hamas, and Iran's nuclear threat remains. Netanyahu also faces the fallout from his attempt to curb the supreme court, the Qatargate affair, and an ongoing corruption trial. Oded Levi, who voted for Netanyahu in 2022 but attended the Eisenkot rally, said whoever was prime minister then is responsible.

Netanyahu's durability rests on a loyal base built over three decades. His allies promote an account in which army and intelligence chiefs kept him in the dark about the October 7 attack, a claim observers call unfounded. He is also viewed as a skilled coalition builder, and many expect him to outmaneuver rivals in post-vote talks. Opposition hopes rest partly on energy abroad, with many liberal, secular expatriates flying home to vote. This group is not captured in standard polls and could matter if the result turns on a single seat.

The word "peace" has been tainted for many Israelis, but it has not vanished. A video shared widely this week showed scores of young Israelis at a Negev music festival singing Shir LaShalom, the song Yitzhak Rabin sang before his 1995 assassination. On Thursday, a state ceremony marked that assassination. Netanyahu stayed away and sent a low-ranking minister. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats and a former general, said he is optimistic that opposition leaders can agree on a regional strategic process for long-term security, though he avoided the words "peace process."