Analysts forecast deadliest phase of U.S.-Iran war after midterms

Strategists warn that the United States and Israel are likely to restart military operations against Iran immediately following the November 3 midterm elections. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He noted that a third round of fighting could be more destructive than the previous two engagements.

The conflict has already resulted in heavy casualties across the region. Western non-governmental organizations report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media indicate that over 4,000 deaths have occurred in Lebanon. The war has also claimed the lives of 21 U.S. service members, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases, and more than 70 Israelis. Fatalities have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Citrinowicz expects the next phase of the war to focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications networks, including internet lines beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised the possibility that Iran could deploy part of its large land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain. The goal of such moves would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

Tensions have persisted since the summer truce collapsed. The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have pushed up global energy costs. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits, mines, and everything else. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Iranian officials have outlined specific demands for a resolution. They seek relief from sanctions, reparations for earlier strike damage, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to retain their enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks attempting to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She predicted retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting airports.

The two nations fought two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and ended in a fragile ceasefire after 12 days. Fighting returned in February following a large U.S. military buildup. That round opened with Israeli strikes on Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The New York Times and other U.S. outlets report that the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown whether Trump will approve it.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. Sadjadpour said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear, limited diplomatic exit.