Statistics Lebanon survey shows 66.4% of Shi'ites favor state control of Hezbollah arms

Regional media outlets are dissecting a new survey that suggests the Lebanese Shi'ite community is reassessing its relationship with Hezbollah. The data, released in mid-October, indicates a majority now supports transferring the group's arsenal to the state. This shift comes as Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org detail the findings.

The poll was conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September, interviewing 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. Results showed that 66.4% of respondents supported handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% preferred the group retain them. Hezbollah has historically argued that its arsenal is essential for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Kataeb.org, which is linked to the Christian Kataeb Party that opposes Hezbollah, provided additional metrics from the survey. According to the site, 71.1% of respondents said decisions regarding war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. Confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces was high, with 78.5% of respondents stating they trusted the army. The military was named the best institution to guarantee long-term security by 51.1% of participants, compared to just 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

The survey results complicate Hezbollah's traditional claim to represent the security interests of Lebanon's Shi'ites. The data shows that 67.4% of respondents felt the group had either failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite this, 59.5% still expressed some trust in Hezbollah, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust. Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status continue to sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum.

An earlier poll presented a contrasting picture. In a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That survey found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening the group requires a stronger Lebanese army and Western and Gulf financial support to replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Signs of local wariness are also emerging. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.

Hezbollah has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war broke out in March 2026, causing heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. Whether discontent turns into political change may depend on whether the Lebanese state can offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity.