Texas Hispanic voters show 55% shift away from Trump before November 3

Hispanic voters in Texas are moving away from President Donald Trump ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Recent surveys conducted since late summer show a majority of these voters disapprove of the president and favor Democratic candidates. This shift is particularly pronounced in the Rio Grande Valley, a region that delivered a record 55% of Hispanic votes to a Republican presidential candidate in 2024.

The change in sentiment is visible in local communities near the border. Father Roy Snipes, a priest at La Lomita Catholic Chapel, preached to about 30 mostly Hispanic worshippers about immigration enforcement. He criticized the detention and deportation of neighbors. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026, a higher share than any other state.

Local business owners report that the crackdown is affecting the workforce. Mario Guerrero, who leads the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to support Democrats in November. He noted that an acquaintance with a crew of 35 daily workers now struggles to get four or six people to show up. Guerrero said voters were not told how far the administration would go in its enforcement actions.

Republican officials acknowledge the growing challenge. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, said most people accept the deportation of criminals but object to removing productive, law-abiding residents. Republican consultant Mike Madrid pointed out that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents. Tano Tijerina, a Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real despite the administration's efforts to secure the border.

Democrats are targeting the Texas 15th congressional district. The district was redrawn in 2025 to create a projected 18-point Republican advantage. Current polling, however, shows a Democratic lead of five or six points. Candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, is campaigning on the economy rather than the national party brand. He told voters at a local avocado festival that the area is not New York or Los Angeles.

Cost of living remains a top concern for voters. At the same festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin stated that the president controls their destiny but is not doing a very good job. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterm election as a game of turnout.

If the current polling holds, a modest swing back toward Democrats could reshape races across the state. It could be enough to put a US Senate seat in play, a seat Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.