Lula Wins Fourth Presidency

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil. Results declared shortly after midnight UK time on 2026-10-26 showed the Workers' party incumbent taking 51.79% of the vote. His rival, far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, received 48.21%.

The margin of victory was approximately 4.3 million votes among 159 million voters. This outcome reversed the result of the first round held earlier this month. In that initial vote, Flávio Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, while Lula garnered 53.8 million, or 45.16%. Since Brazil restored democracy in 1985, a first-round runner-up had never won the second ballot.

Lula described the final tally as a defeat for denialism. He will assume office on his 81st birthday, which falls next Tuesday. His opponent leads the radical populist movement established by his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup following his loss in the 2022 election.

Several factors contributed to Lula's turnaround. The first round recorded a record abstention rate of 21%, a pattern common among lower-income voters who lean toward Lula. Progressives focused heavily on mobilization efforts. Millions joined a WhatsApp channel named Lula's army, which distributed daily instructions for creating viral supportive content. Lula recently acquired his first smartphone and began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro's for the first time during the campaign.

The Bolsonaro campaign faced internal scandals. The magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party in 2020 with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists. A dozen watchdogs and research groups alleged that Meta favored the Bolsonaro campaign. Brazil's electoral court ordered Meta to avoid unequal treatment of candidates. Meta called the allegations false and unfounded.

International dynamics also shaped the race. President Donald Trump called the trial of Jair Bolsonaro a witch hunt and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports. Trump did not openly endorse Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he termed colonial designs by Trump. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy balancing relations with the United States, China, and Russia. Lula also declined invitations to join a Latin American coalition for military operations against drug cartels alongside the Pentagon.

The election result carries implications for environmental policy. Under Lula's previous administration, deforestation in the Amazon fell by more than 70%. His government cracked down on illegal mining and supported Indigenous populations. Guardian Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips noted that environmental issues appeared only in the final presidential debate. Voters prioritized the economy, public security, and culture war issues. Lula must now work with a newly elected congress that includes a record number of rightwing politicians hostile to environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the loss. He cited the decision to extend voting by two hours as a reason, though both sides had requested the extension for different purposes. He stated it was impossible to concede the election result. Phillips expects the challenge to fail because world leaders are already recognizing Lula's win. Phillips suggested Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. He noted that while violence from supporters remains possible, he believes Bolsonaro's political career is over.